Alex Thorn, head research analyst at crypto asset manager Galaxy, believes altcoins would benefit more from a Donald Trump election victory than Bitcoin because of a potential shift in the regulatory environment. Thorn shared this view in a post on X while responding to comments about the weakness in the ETH/BTC ratio.
The ETHBTC ratio describes the value of ETH to BTC, and it fell to 0.0399 on September 15, its lowest level since April 2021.
With that decline, the ETHBTC ratio has declined 53% since then and looks set for further decline, but some people believe that a Trump win could boost ETH. Thorn appears to share a similar view.
He said:
“I do think a trump victory is better for alts than BTC on a relative basis, mostly because easing on the regulatory front helps alts more than BTC.”
His view aligns with the general opinion of many who believe that a Trump win would boost the prices of crypto assets as it would ease the regulatory pressure on the crypto industry. Although his focus on altcoins differs from that of many analysts, it may be because he considers that Bitcoin already enjoys significant regulatory clarity as an asset.
Compared to BTC, the status of most altcoins remains uncertain, with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) still classifying most of them as securities. A Trump win followed by the fulfillment of his promise to replace SEC chair Gary Gensler could provide more regulatory clarity around altcoins, finally boosting their value.
Altcoins struggle could continueÂ
Thorn’s comments about the potential impact of Trump’s win on altcoins are not surprising, given their struggles over the past few months. Major cap altcoins, including Solana (SOL), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA), performed worse than Bitcoin in 2024.
These struggles have been due to regulatory pressure, reduced activity on several blockchain networks, and prevailing bearish market sentiments. However, analysts believe things could worsen if there is no rally.
Will Clemente, founder of Reflexity Research, believes that altcoins could attract less funds from institutional investors if there is no rally.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen also shared a similar view, saying on his YouTube channel that altcoins will fall further this year and capitulate against Bitcoin due to the low net global liquidity.
He said:
“What I’ve said could be the ultimate outcome: alt/Bitcoin pairs capitulating before the end of the year. So I think there is a case to be made that alt/Bitcoin pairs will simply get rejected at 0.4, they could still wick a little bit above it, but I ultimately think they will get rejected and they will come back down to the range lows before the end of the year.”
However, MN Trading CIO Michael van de Poppe believes that altcoins’ bottom is already in and expects the assets to trend upward. Bitfinex analysts have also said that altcoins remain relatively strong against BTC and have shown resilience, which could make them attractive to investors.
Bitcoin to cross $100k if Trump wins
Most institutional analysts have focused on the potential impact of Bitcoin with varying predictions of how high the flagship asset could go depending on who wins the US presidential election.
Standard Chartered has an optimistic forecast for Bitcoin, with the bank predicting that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high by the end of 2024, regardless of who wins the 2024 elections.
Analysts at the bank predict that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 if Trump wins the election or $75,000 if Kamala Harris wins. They attribute the price divergence to the relaxed regulations that will happen under Trump. Still, the bank expects regulatory progress for the crypto industry regardless of who wins the election, only that it might be slower under Harris.
Analysts at brokerage firm Bernstein are less optimistic about the impact of a Trump win, saying that BTC could reach $90,000 in 2024 if the former president wins. As for Harris, the analysts are pessimistic, noting that BTC will likely fall below $50,000 and might even go as low as $30,000 if she wins the election.
Still, many believe the potential impact of a Trump win on crypto prices might be exaggerated, noting that the former president has a track record of breaking his political promises. Polymarket data shows that Harris’s chance of winning the election is 50%, 1% higher than Trump’s.
