Solana-based prediction market BET has hit a new milestone of $20 million in its daily volume, according to Dune Analytics data.

However, a deeper look reveals a downward trend in BET’s trade count over the past three days, raising questions about how the $20 million volume was achieved.

Despite this, the milestone is noteworthy as BET launched less than two weeks ago. This suggests that BET successfully engages Solana users interested in blockchain-based prediction markets.

Notably, BET users have wagered more than $23 million across four political bets. Over $20 million of this is on Kamala Harris winning the popular vote in the upcoming election, while around $2.3 million is on Donald Trump winning the 2024 Presidential Election.

Prediction markets

Decentralized prediction markets like Polymarkets have grown in popularity over the past year, especially with the upcoming US elections. These platforms allow users to pool insights on future events, often offering less biased predictions due to the financial stakes involved.

For context, Polymarket has seen unprecedented growth, reaching its highest trading volumes and user participation for consecutive months.

However, the rise of these platforms has sparked debate about their role in public discourse. Some praise them as valuable social tools, while others argue they resemble gambling.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has praised prediction markets like Polymarket for their potential as “social epistemic tools,” arguing they provide a unique way for the public to engage in collective forecasting.

Critics, however, believe Polymarket’s election-related markets mirror traditional gambling more than unbiased forecasting, raising concerns that participants may use these platforms primarily for arbitrage opportunities between prediction markets and mainstream betting platforms.

Moreover, the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and lawmakers, including crypto cynic Senator Elizabeth Warren, have raised concerns about the impact of these bets on public interest and called for their restrictions.

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DeFi protocol Drift has launched a prediction market called BET on the Solana blockchain, according to an Aug. 19 statement.

Drift Protocol co-founder Cindy Leow likened BET’s prediction market to perpetual trading. She explained that, just as perpetual traders bet on potential price changes in crypto, prediction markets allow for financial stakes in the outcomes of real-world events.

She stated:

“Taking real events into permissionless financialization opens up the door to bet on everything from making a hyperlocalized bet with a few friends to trying to predict the outcome of a US presidential election.”

BET features

BET operates similarly to Polymarket, allowing users to purchase YES or NO shares on an event like the upcoming US presidential election.

However, the Solana-based platform stands out by allowing users to use over 30 cryptos — including USDC and SOL, among others — as collateral. Users also earn a yield on their assets before the event’s outcome is determined.

Additionally, BET gives users the ability to hedge their predictions with “structured bets.” This feature allows them to take a long position in the prediction market while shorting Bitcoin. The platform also features a rewards system called FUEL, which is designed to boost trading activity and incentivize user engagement.

While BET is initially focused on the US elections, plans are underway to expand into other areas, such as Formula 1 and other crypto and cultural events.

Prediction markets’ popularity

Decentralized prediction markets have surged in popularity this year thanks to Polymarket’s success. These platforms allow users to bet on events, ranging from sports outcomes to geopolitical incidents.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has notably praised prediction markets as one of the leading social epistemic technologies of the 2020s. He said:

“[These markets are] truth-seeking and democratic, built around open public participation rather than pre-selected elites.”

However, the market’s growing popularity has drawn regulatory scrutiny. The US Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and lawmakers like Senator Elizabeth Warren have expressed concerns about the impact of these bets on public interest and called for their restrictions.

Conversely, critical players in the crypto industry, such as Coinbase and Gemini, oppose these regulatory moves, arguing that they are economically flawed.

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