Most crypto bettors on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction marketplace, do not expect the detained Telegram CEO, Pavel Durov, to be released this month.

Data from Polymarket indicates only a 39% chance of Durov’s release in August, with shares trading at 39 cents at press time. However, bettors are more optimistic about a release before October, assigning a 78% probability.

According to Polymarket’s data, these bets had gathered over $600,000 worth of positions as of press time.

Prediction markets allow users in different locations to pool insights on future events. Since participants have a financial stake, prediction markets often offer less biased predictions. These markets have gained popularity in the past year, especially with the upcoming US elections.

Legal challenges

Durov was arrested on Aug. 24, 2024, at Le Bourget airport near Paris and remains detained as part of a broad investigation.

The investigation covers serious charges, including facilitating illegal transactions, refusing to cooperate with law enforcement, involvement in child pornography and narcotics distribution, organized fraud, money laundering, and the unlawful provision of cryptographic tools.

French President Emmanuel Macron commented on the arrest, emphasizing that it was a legal matter, free from political influence. He said:

“The arrest of the president of Telegram on French soil took place as part of an ongoing judicial investigation. It is in no way a political decision. It is up to the judges to rule on the matter.”

At the same time, reports have emerged that his application for Telegram is being scrutinized in India. However, there is no immediate threat of a ban.

Reports stated that India’s cybercrime wing is investigating Telegram for its potential misuse in criminal activities, which could lead to a ban if deemed necessary.

Support for Durov

Meanwhile, Durov’s arrest has sparked significant attention within legal and crypto communities. Critics, including whistleblower Edward Snowden and tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, have condemned the arrest as an attack on free speech.

Similarly, crypto stakeholders like Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and Tron blockchain founder Justin Sun have spoken against the arrest.

Furthermore, the UAE has also stepped in and requested consular services for Durov.

Durov holds citizenship in several countries, including the UAE, France, Russia, St. Kitts and Nevis.

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